Turning the tide of war: Israel’s ‘Midway’ moment

An inconclusive ceasefire will keep Israel from restoring its devastated deterrence power and regaining regional preeminence

By Michael Oren

For Israelis, October 7 will forever be a day that will live in agony. No military success, however stunning, can ever mitigate that pain. Nevertheless, Israel’s massive counterstrike against Hezbollah, eliminating Hassan Nasrallah, its senior leadership, and much of its missile capabilities, proves that Israel’s deterrence power can still be restored. Accomplishing that, though, will require Israel to continue the fight and resist international, and especially US, calls for a ceasefire. As America’s own history proves, persistence in war, even after initial setbacks, can ultimately lead to triumph. 

At stake is not only the salvation of Israel’s north but its ability to achieve long-term peace and security in the Middle East – in short, to survive.

America’s entry into World War II began in 1941 with Japan’s disastrous surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. The American Civil War opened in 1861 with the humiliating rebel bombardment of Fort Sumter. America’s independence war from Great Britain, launched in 1776, met with a string of battlefield failures. In each case, though, US forces eventually rebounded and achieved the historic triumphs that all but erased their earlier defeats. By winning a decisive victory over Hezbollah, Israel can do the same. 

Beyond the massacre of 1,200 people and the kidnapping of 251 more, Hamas’s onslaught of October 7 ravaged the perception of Israeli power. That impression was essential to deterring Iran and its terrorist proxies and helped convince Arab countries to make peace. Israel’s image as a military powerhouse strengthened our international standing, stimulated our economy, and advanced our efforts to integrate into the region. 

October 7 all but obliterated that image. Though the IDF subsequently fought valiantly and, by most professional estimates, effectively, it failed to resuscitate its reputation. The fact that Hamas, though seriously degraded, remains undefeated after more than eleven months of intense combat has further diminished that stature. 

Where was the army that defeated four Arab forces in six days in 1967 – so the world asked – or that recovered from the surprise Syrian and Egyptian attacks of 1973 to threaten both Cairo and Damascus? Where was the military that rescued hostages from Entebbe in 1976 or, in 1981, destroyed the Iraqi nuclear plant? 

Such questions, by casting doubt on both our defensive and offensive capabilities, impaired Israel’s security. Compounding that damage was the IDF׳s failure over those same eleven months to stem Hezbollah’s daily bombardment of northern Israel. Rather than deterring Hezbollah, Israel’s limited retaliations only emboldened the terrorists to intensify their rocket and drone fire. Instead of power, Israel projected fecklessness and a fear of a broader engagement. 

The specter of a costlier conflict with Iran looms, of course, along with tensions with a White House desperate to deescalate at any price.

Then, finally, Israel reacted. Recalling the “aroused democracy” once described by General Dwight D. Eisenhower, Israel brilliantly and fiercely struck back at Hezbollah, killing dozens of its commanders and destroying thousands of its missiles. Friday’s devastating bombing in Beirut, and Nasrallah’s death, left the organization effectively leaderless. Though the terrorists have yet to unleash the full brunt of their most lethal and accurate rockets, their image has been irreparably tarnished. 

For that reason, alone, Israel must not agree to a ceasefire that will allow Hezbollah to rearm and rebuild its command structure. In contrast to Gaza where Israel’s stated goal is to destroy Hamas and free the hostages, in Lebanon, the objective is to vastly reduce Hezbollah’s ability as a fighting force and drive it north of the Litani River. A ceasefire that enables Hezbollah to remain deployed along our northern border and resume daily firing at our citizens will not enable tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return to their homes.

The specter of a costlier conflict with Iran looms, of course, along with tensions with a White House desperate to deescalate at any price. Still, the dangers of failing to continue our counteroffensive against Hezbollah far outweigh those of waging one. At stake is not only the salvation of Israel’s north but its ability to achieve long-term peace and security in the Middle East – in short, to survive. 

Six months after Pearl Harbor, at the Battle of Midway, US forces turned the tide against Imperial Japan. Similarly, after roundly defeating the rebels at Gettysburg in 1863, the Union marched on to victory. And not until their triumph at Yorktown, a full seven years after breaking from Britain, was American independence guaranteed.

This is Israel’s Midway moment. In Lebanon, Israel can have its Gettysburg and its Yorktown. The alternatives are the examples of Iraq and Afghanistan, America’s most recent wars that ended inconclusively with ignominious withdrawals. Israel, fighting an existential war on our own borders, must not go that route. Rather, by resisting pressure for a ceasefire that leaves Hezbollah unbowed, Israel can fully restore our deterrence power and regain our regional preeminence. The pain and the trauma of October 7 will surely endure, but the image of an Israel both willing and able to defend itself must never again be questioned.