The Possibility of a New Nuclear Deal Should Raise Deep Concern in Jerusalem

By Michael Oren 

My mother, a veteran family therapist, was fond of saying, “the presenting problem is not the problem.” In other words, the issue that appears to be the most pressing often acts as camouflage for a much deeper and far more threatening problem. In the quickly arranged summit meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, the presenting problem was the trade tariffs that the United States was imposing on Israel. That was indeed a serious issue, representing a loss of more than two billion dollars to Israel at a time when we can least afford it. Still, the tariffs were not the main reason that Netanyahu rushed to Washington. The problem is Iran.

At their joint Oval Office press conference Monday, President Trump made the brief but astonishing announcement that, “We’re having direct talks with Iran.” Previously, the president made no attempt to hide his desire to negotiate with Iran. Indeed, no sooner had he returned to the White House in January than he wrote to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and invited him to renewed talks. But now, suddenly, Trump has revealed that the talks are underway and will include, this Saturday, what he termed “a very big meeting.” More earthshaking still, though, was the revelation that the U.S. and Iran are conducting these negotiations directly. That is something that not even President Biden, while committed to reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement, dared to do. Biden’s negotiators did not sit in the same room with the Iranians and passed messages back and forth to them through intermediaries.

While Israel surely knew of these direct talks and Netanyahu, in his Oval Office remarks, took no issue with them, the prospect of another nuclear deal is a source of serious concern in Jerusalem. The first question is: how long will the negotiations continue? The second question is: what is the goal of the negotiations? Will it be to achieve an agreement only marginally better than that of 2015 and once again only delay Iran’s nuclear program for a limited period? Finally, what will be America’s position should the negotiations fail?

All of these questions are crucial for Israel’s security. The Iranians are world-class negotiators and will certainly seek to drag the negotiations out long enough to allow Russia to rebuild and improve the air defenses destroyed by the Israeli Air Force. They might agree to terms slightly better than those of the 2015 agreement but once again keep their nuclear facilities and centrifuges intact. In turn, they will demand the lifting of the punishing sanctions that Trump has reimposed on Iran and the removal of the credible military option he has put back on the table.

Alongside resolving the presenting problem of the tariffs, Israel must strive to receive answers regarding the real problem of renewed U.S.-Iranian talks. We must, to the best of our ability, attain assurances regarding the duration of the talks and their ultimate goals. Above all, we must make clear that the only agreement truly acceptable to Israel is one that dismantles—rather than merely freezes—Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Only such an agreement can preserve Israel’s vital security interests and maximize the opportunities created by its military victories in the region. Such an agreement, we must stress, must serve the interests not only of Israel and the Middle East, but of the United States itself.